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Updated on Cutting Humor to reflect the Scrape of jockey and Haikal Change

Considering that the Kentucky Derby at 2013 embraced a points system to qualify for the 20-horse field, chalk has mastered that the winner's circle. Justify, Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome and Orb were post-time favorites, returning involving $6.60 and $12.80 on a $2 win bet -- a far cry from huge payouts of yore, which included I'll Have Another ($32.60 at 2012), Animal Kingdom ($43.80 in 2011), Mine This Bird ($103.20 at 2009) and Giacomo ($102.60 in 2005). [Everything you Want to know about the 2019 Kentucky Derby] On the other hand, exotic bets like the trifecta (picking the first three finishers in order) and superfecta (picking the first four finishers in order) continue to provide betting bonanzas. Last year's $1 superfecta paid $19,618.20. In 2017 the $1 triple paid $8,297.20 along with a different monster superfecta ($75,974.50).Updated to reflect the scrape of Haikal and jockey change on Cutting Humor Considering that the Kentucky Derby in 2013 embraced a points system to qualify for the 20-horse area, chalk has mastered that the winner's circle. Justify, Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome and Orb were post-time favorites, returning between $6.60 and $12.80 on a $2 billion bet -- a far cry from enormous payouts of yore, which included I'll Have Another ($32.60 in 2012), Animal Kingdom ($43.80 in 2011), Mine This Bird ($103.20 at 2009) and Giacomo ($102.60 at 2005). [Everything you Want to know concerning the 2019 Kentucky Derby] On the flip side, exotic bets like the trifecta (picking the first 3 finishers in order) and superfecta (picking the first four finishers so ) continue to supply betting bonanzas. Last year's $1 superfecta paid $19,618.20. In 2017 the $1 triple paid $8,297.20 in addition to a different monster superfecta ($75,974.50).Isolating the top three or four finishers in a 20-horse field famous for its chaos is not simple, but also to getting a good pedigree and a good foundation, a horse requires tactical speed to have the ability to keep up with the speed. Brisnet classified only one horse in the area, Omaha Beach, as a need-to-lead type, or'E' horse, but he had been scratched on Wednesday, leaving 15 horses place to be stalk the early speed ('EP' horses) or near it ('P' horses) between the initial (half-mile) and moment (three-quarters of a mile) calls. Four others are believed sustainers or closers ('S') and will make their movement from further back. [2019 Kentucky Derby horses, post positions, odds, evaluation and start time] NEED-TO-LEAD ('E') EARLY PRESSER ('EP') PRESSER ('P') SUSTAINER OR CLOSER ('S') None Maximum Security Improbable Win Win Win Spinoff Cutting Humor Code of Honor Roadster By My Standards Country House Tax Tacitus Master Fencer Gray Magician Vekoma War of Will Long Range Toddy Plus Que Parfait Game Winner Bodexpress But, some horses will be forced by Tuesday's post position draw out of the comfort zone. For instance, Mark Casse, trainer of War Will (post ranking No. 2) said after the draw that his horse will"probably be on the direct and play catch me if possible." If he does not go to the front, look for Tax, in place No. 3, to"come out jogging and sit on the rail," according to Tax's coach, Danny Gargan. Maximum Security (No. 7) will also likely be up front but, with a lack of accurate speedsters from the race, the rate shouldn't be rapid enough to hamper Maximum Security's capacity to last 11/4 miles. Being one of the first flight of horses is key. Over the previous six years each Kentucky Derby winner but one, Orb at 2013, was classified as having a stalking ('EP') working style. Half of those horses (12 out of 24) that hit the board over that span had a'EP' running fashion as well with others listed as pressers ('P'), horses sitting just off the leaders in the very first call. Maximum Security qualifies on merit and running style. I would also include Game Winner, Vekoma, Tax, Spinoff and Improbable as great worth plays to hit the board on Saturday over a fast track. [Three Kentucky Derby long shots worth a bet ] Improbable is recorded by Brisnet as a presser but he's never been more than 21/2 lengths behind the leader at the first or second call. Nyquist was four lengths behind the leader at the very first call in the 2016 Kentucky Derby and American Pharoah had been just two lengths off the lead at the first telephone in 2015. Both won and Improbable looks like a winner . In the very least, he's well worth using as a key horse in your trifectas and superfectas. Spinoff inherited almost 3 times as much speed as stamina out of his lineage (2.78 Dosage Index) along with his ancient presser running fashion ought to have him in prime position to create a splash. Vekoma has a similar speed profile (2.56 Dosage Index) and his success in the Blue Grass -- that included a career high Brisnet pace figure (how quickly he ran from the start to the next call) of 114 -- is reason for optimism this Saturday. Game Winner failed as the favorite in his last two races but he's hit the board in all six of his starts, never finishing worse than second. However, Baffert has trained two Triple Crown winners in the previous 3 decades so that you can never count one of his horses out. Tax may have to expend energy to get a cozy place on the railroad but he has three triple-digit Brisnet rate figures in a row with a new career pace figure (105) in his final homework, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, which makes him an appealing overlay for the superfecta at 20-1 odds. Win Win Win, By My Standards and Cutting Humor also deserve consideration in superfecta wagers. Win Win Win closed into a quick pace during his second-place finish in the Blue Grass in April along with also his pedigree sets up nicely for a continuing run at the classic distance. By My Standards establish a career-high Brisnet speed figure within his Louisiana Derby win (102) along with his trainer has a positive anticipation for graded stakes races at 2019, meaning a $2 blind wager on Bret Calhoun's horses in these events would net you a 74-cent gain this year. Same for jockey Gabriel Saez (also -$1.18 net profit on route races per $2 wagered in 2019), that has ridden this horse since his first career start at Churchill Downs in November of the last year. Mike Smith, Hall of Fame jockey and two-time winner of the Kentucky Derby, will replace Corey Lanerie on Cutting Humor. The dark brown colt should in contact with the leaders early, similar to his victory from the Sunland Derby, letting him use his late kick to catch a piece of the plank. Bearing that in mind, this is how I would assemble my trifecta and superfecta tickets. Read more here: http://ashco.in/mitchell-marsh-australia-all-rounder-to-miss-start-of-test-summer-after-punching-wall-breaking-hand/