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Nadal is the rightful favourite, writes Jack Houghton, but the odds are too short and he fancies Thiem to Acquire a five setter on Sunday

Nadal too short in the outright market When previewing this French Open - advocating that the perennial big three of Nadal, Djokovic and Federer should be avoided, together with all looking wobbly nowadays - I'd hoped to have gotten rid of a couple of them early in the tournament. It had been slightly galling, then, to see that the trio parade largely effortlessly into the semi-finals. Luckily, Thiem managed to dispatch Djokovic in their much-delayed semi-final, at least delaying the point where those recommendations might appear ill-advised. I am still optimistic, however. On my evaluations, Nadal should be favourite, but just at about 1.54, and not the 1.26 accessible at the time of writing. Thiem can now rightly claim to function as the overburdened player in the world on clay, and with beaten Nadal four occasions on the surface, such as most recently in Barcelona when the pair met, Thiem stands a reasonable probability of winning his first knee important on Sunday. He is certainly the value bet, and that I wouldn't put off anyone supporting Thiem in the outright market, as well as placing Nadal early, with the intention of backing him higher odds later and locking at a profit. The brief for this guide, however, is to cover the side markets, and Thiem seems the value there, also, though some of the ancillary markets should be left alone. Most Aces So far, head-to-head, Thiem has functioned more experts on nine from the 12 occasions they have met, with two ties and Nadal bettering Thiem in this department just once. Thiem has served 76% of the complete ace count. All of this suggests Thiem should be around 1.33 to function most aces. In the time of writing, the markets are relatively illiquid, but ancient Sportsbook chances suggest Thiem will be short as 1.16. In the event the exchange reflects this when the market opens, then it may be one to leave . Even when receiving the drubbing Nadal meted out to Thiem at the final last year, the Austrian nevertheless managed to outscore Nadal 7-0 on aces, therefore even though laying 1.16 might function as value call, it's very likely to be a losing bet, too. Read more: f1radical.com